Key events
UK posts surprise budget surplus for January after bumper income tax haul
The UK government ran a surprise £5.4bn surplus in January, after bumper self-assessment income tax receipts, leaving some rooms for giveaways in the chancellor’s budget next month, according to some economists. My colleague Julia Kollewe has the story here.
Downing Street believes that Rishi Sunak will not technically need to put his deal with the EU for changes to the Northern Ireland protocol to a vote in the Commons, and yesterday No 10 refused to commit to holding one (even though at least one senior Tory said it would be wise to hold a vote anyway).
But, according to Adam Forrest at the Independent, Tory Brexiters are saying that, if Sunak does not schedule a vote, they will force one themselves. He writes:
One Tory Brexiteer, a member of the European Research Group (ERG), told The Independent that backbench rebels could stage a vote of their own if Mr Sunak were to refuse one and enforce a protocol deal without DUP backing.
Another ERG source added: “We absolutely need a vote in Commons when we know what is agreed – it’s right for parliament to have a say in a matter as important as this one. There will be concern shown by MPs if we did not get a vote. There are all sorts of ways a vote can be arranged.”
Minister plays down reports colleagues could resign over Sunak’s Northern Ireland protocol deal
Good morning. Rishi Sunak is still trying to close a deal on the Northern Ireland protocol. A few days ago reporters were briefed that he would be unveiling it at cabinet today, but there has been a hold-up because he is still trying to secure the support of Tory Brexiters in the European Research Group and the DUP. The story is stuck in a “not much happening in public” phase.
But that does mean there is no crisis or tension. This is the hardest political problem Sunak has had to face as PM and three outcomes are possible. 1) Sunak pushes ahead with a deal rejected by the DUP, triggering a large revolt by Tory Brexiters. 2) Sunak pushes ahead with a deal, but the DUP is supportive, or at least not too critical, and any Tory revolt is relatively limited. 3) Sunak abandons trying to get a deal for now, and carries on with a status quo. Option 2) would be a small triumph; Sunak would have achieved something that eluded Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. But option 1) would be a disaster for his leadership, and option 3) would amount to a failure too.
Although there is not much happening on the surface, today the Times has splashed on claims that some ministers could resign over the deal proposed by Sunak. In their story Steven Swinford, Oliver Wright and Bruno Waterfield report:
Another minister told The Times that ministers would quit if the government tried to force through a deal that undermined Northern Ireland’s sovereignty by leaving the province beholden to existing and future EU single market rules.
“The naivety is astonishing,” the minister said. “The strategy hasn’t worked. People won’t allow something that doesn’t ensure sovereignty. Ministers will resign. I couldn’t look myself in the eye and vote through something I thought would undermine sovereignty in Northern Ireland.”
Yesterday, as my colleagues Jessica Elgot, Pippa Crerar and Kiran Stacey report in our overnight story, Suella Braverman, the home secretary, went public with a strong hint about her reservations over Sunak’s strategy. Braverman is also thought to be concerned that Sunak’s forthcoming asylum bill might not be as draconian as she wants, and No 10 must be keeping an eye on her intentions.
Maria Caulfield, the health minister, was doing an interview round this morning. She played down reports that colleagues were on the brink of resignation, and urged people to wait until the deal was finalised. She told Times Radio:
I think we need to support the prime minister.
There isn’t a deal done yet so all these rumours about ministers or MPs not being happy, I haven’t seen the details, we have to give the prime minister that time and space to get these negotiations done. We need to give him the time and space to thrash out the final elements of any final deal.
We may – or may not – get significant developments on this today. There are also significant developments in the SNP leadership contest, where Kate Forbes’s campaign is in trouble, and Keir Starmer is giving a speech to the NFU.
Here is the agenda for the day.
Morning: Rishi Sunak chairs cabinet.
10.40am: Mark Spencer, the farming minister, gives a speech to the NFU conference. There will also be a short video address from Sunak.
11.15am: Prof Sir Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, and other health officials give evidence to the Commons health committee about prevention in health and social care.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
2pm: Keir Starmer speaks to the NFU conference.
3pm: Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, gives evidence to the Commons justice committee.
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